Ung Dung Chi So Ban Thang Ky Vong (xG) Vao Soi Keo Bong Da Chuyen Sau

1. Cuoc cach mang so lieu va su ra doi cua chi so xG

Trong qua khu, viec nhan dinh phong do hang cong cua mot doi bong phu thuoc rat lon vao cam tinh cua nguoi xem hoac so luong ban thang ghi duoc trong cac tran dau truoc. Tuy nhien, su phat trien cua cong nghe phan tich du lieu lon (Big Data) da tao ra mot cuoc cach mang toan dien trong bong da hien dai voi su xuat hien cua chi so Expected Goals (Ban thang ky vong - ky hieu la xG).

Chi so xG la mot mo hinh toan hoc do luong chat luong cua mot co hoi dut diem dua tren lich su cua hang van cu sut tuong tu trong qua khu. No gan cho moi cu sut mot gia tri tu 0 den 1, the hien xac suat cu sut do bien thanh ban thang. Viec biet cach khai thac va ung dung chi so xG tai Bongdata se giup nguoi choi nhin thau duoc ban chat loi choi cua mot doi bong, vuot qua nhung sai lech do ty so hien thi tren bang dien tu tao ra.

2. Cac yeu to cau thanh nen gia tri xG cua mot cu sut

Khong phai moi cu sut deu co co hoi tro thanh ban thang nhu nhau. Cac he thong may tinh nhu Opta hay StatsBomb tinh toan chi so xG dua tren mot tap hop cac bien so cuc ky phuc tap bao gom:

Khoang cach va goc sut: Day la hai yeu to co ban nhat. Mot cu sut truc dien vong cam o khoang cach 5m se co chi so xG cao hon rat nhieu so voi mot pha dut diem tu xa cach khung thanh 30m hoac mot cu sut o goc hep sat duong bien ngang.

Loai duong chuyen kien tao (Assist Type): Cu sut den tu mot duong choc khe bam bo xuyen qua hang thu doi phuong se co xG khac voi mot qua tat bong tu canh vao, hoac mot tinh huong bong bat ra tu qua phat goc.

Bo phan dut diem: Mot cu sut bang chan thuan cua tien dao luon co ty le chuyen hoa thanh ban thang cao hon mot pha danh dau trong tu the bi hau ve doi phuong ti de, tranh chap quyet liet.

Vi tri cua thu mon va hau ve doi phuong: Mo hinh xG hien dai (nhu Freeze Frame) con tinh toan xem co bao nhieu hau ve dang dung che chan truoc khung thanh va goc di chuyen cua thu mon tai thoi diem cu sut dien ra.

3. Cach chuyen hoa du lieu xG thanh loi the soi keo Tai Xiu va Handicap

Doi voi nhung nguoi choi ca cuoc bong da chuyen nghiep, chi so xG chinh la chiec kinh lup giup ho phat hien ra nhung diem bat thuong tren bang keo cua nha cai.

Phat hien hang cong "Vuot nguong" hoac "Kem duyen"

Gia su Doi A dang co chuoi 3 tran ghi duoc 9 ban thang (trung binh 3 ban/tran). Phan lon nguoi choi pho thong se lap tuc lao vao cua Tai o tran tiep theo. Tuy nhien, khi ban tra cuu du lieu tai BONGDATA va thay tong chi so xG cua Doi A trong 3 tran do chi la 3.2, dieu nay chung to ho dang ghi ban "vuot nguong" nho su may man nhat thoi hoac sai lam cua doi phuong. Hien tuong nay chac chan se ha nhiet o cac vong sau. Nguoc lai, neu mot doi bong co xG len toi 2.5 moi tran nhung lien tuc hoa 0-0 vi chan sut tit ngoi, do la tin hieu cho thay ho sap co mot tran cau bung no ban thang.

Ung dung chi so xGA (Expected Goals Against - Ban thua ky vong)

xGA la chi so do luong chat luong cac co hoi ma hang phong ngu cua mot doi cho phep doi phuong tao ra. Mot doi bong co so ban thua thuc te it nhung chi so xGA lai rat cao chung to ho dang duoc cuu roi boi su xuat sac den tu phong do than thanh cua thu mon. Khi thu mon nay gap chan thuong hoac sa sut phong do, he thong phong ngu cua ho se lap tuc sup do. Day la co hoi vang de ban dat niem tin vao doi doi thu o keo Handicap.

4. Ket luan: Dung de ty so danh lua thi giac cua ban

Ty so cua mot tran dau bong da doi khi la mot ke noi doi vi dai. Mot doi bong choi te hon van co the thang 1-0 nho mot qua phan luoi nha cua doi phuong. Chi so ban thang ky vong xG chinh la cong cu giup ban gat bo hoan toan yeu to may rui do de tien gan nhat den nang luc thuc te cua cac cau lac bo. Hay luon ket hop chi so xG cung cac bai nhan dinh chuyen sau tai BONGDATA de dua ra nhung quyet dinh dau tu thong minh va chinh xac tuyet doi.

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